How to Estimate Your 2027 Income for the Marketplace (and Avoid Repaying Credits)

To estimate your income for the Marketplace, project your household's 2027 modified adjusted gross income (MAGI): your expected adjusted gross income plus any tax-exempt interest, non-taxable Social Security and excluded foreign income. Use what you expect to earn in 2027, not what you earned last year. Starting with the 2026 tax year, there is no longer a cap on how much extra credit you have to pay back, so an estimate that runs low can now cost you the full difference at tax time.

This is general information, not tax advice. If your income is complicated, a CPA is worth the call.

The subsidy cliff is back. The enhanced premium tax credits expired after 2025. For 2027, the credit is generally limited to households between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL), unless Congress acts. Go one dollar over 400% and the credit is gone.

Repayment caps are gone. Under H.R. 1 (the 2025 budget law), the old limits on repaying excess advance credits ended starting with tax year 2026. If your actual income comes in higher than your estimate, you repay the full excess, whatever your income.

Meanwhile, full prices are higher. Benchmark silver premiums for a 40-year-old rose in all 46 SC counties for 2027, by 24.8% on an enrollment-weighted average.

The Marketplace uses the 2026 HHS poverty guidelines for 2027 coverage in South Carolina:

South Carolina did not expand Medicaid, so the 100% line matters here. Below it, most adults don't qualify for a premium tax credit. There are narrow exceptions, so if your income is near that line, talk with us before you apply.

For 2027, the IRS sets the share of income you are expected to pay for the benchmark silver plan on a sliding scale, from 2.15% at the low end up to 10.22% for incomes from 300% to 400% FPL.

HealthCare.gov asks for your expected household income for the year you want coverage. That includes you, your spouse if you file jointly, and anyone you claim as a dependent who is required to file a tax return.

Count:

• Federal taxable wages (the "federal taxable wages" line on your pay stub, after pre-tax retirement and health deductions)
• Self-employment income, after business expenses
• Unemployment compensation
• Social Security, both the taxable and non-taxable parts, including SSDI
• Most IRA and 401(k) withdrawals and pensions
• Capital gains, interest and dividends, including tax-exempt interest
• Net rental and royalty income
• Alimony from divorces finalized before 2019
• Tips

Don't count:

• Child support
• Gifts and loan proceeds
• Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
• Veterans' disability payments and workers' compensation
• Qualified distributions from a Roth account
• Alimony from divorces finalized in 2019 or later

1. Start with your most recent tax return. Your AGI line is the backbone. Add back tax-exempt interest and non-taxable Social Security.
2. Adjust for what you know is changing. A new job, a raise, a spouse going part-time, a planned retirement date, a child aging out of the household.
3. Subtract pre-tax contributions you plan to make. 401(k), traditional IRA and HSA contributions lower AGI. Since 2026, bronze and catastrophic plans count as HSA-compatible, and the 2027 HSA limits are $4,500 for self-only coverage and $9,000 for family coverage.
4. For self-employed or seasonal work, use net, not gross. Estimate profit after expenses. Look at the last two or three years and lean toward the middle, not your best month. Our self-employed guide and 1099 deduction article go deeper.
5. Plan big one-time items. Selling stock, a Roth conversion or a large IRA withdrawal can push you past a threshold. Early retirees should read our retiring-before-65 guide.
6. Keep your math. If the Marketplace asks for documents, you'll want your records.

Take a single 40-year-old in Richland County picks the benchmark plan, Blue Congaree Silver 1, at a full-price monthly premium of $685 before subsidies.

If her income ends up at $55,000, she owes back about $1,275 when she files. If it ends up at $70,000, above the 400% line, she owes back the entire $3,879, because there is no repayment cap.

These figures assume a full year on the same plan and are rounded. Your own numbers will depend on your age, county, household and plan.

Your estimate isn't locked in. If your income or household changes during 2027, such as a new job, a lost client, a marriage or a new baby, update your Marketplace application as soon as possible. HealthCare.gov warns that if you don't report a raise and keep using advance credits, you'll pay the difference back when you file.

If you work with us, we can make the update for you. It costs you nothing because carriers pay us.

If you're close to 400% FPL, a slightly high estimate is usually safer than a low one. Taking less credit up front means a refund at tax time instead of a bill. If you're close to 250% FPL, the choice affects whether you get a cost-sharing reduction silver plan, so it's worth running both versions with an agent. Our subsidy cliff guide walks through the 400% line in detail.